FAQ
KromerMarket is a KROMER prediction market for Deltarune theories. You buy shares in what you think is true; if you turn out to be right, each share pays K$ 1.00. Everything below is the whole ruleset, including the parts that can cost you money.
The basics
What is this?
A prediction market. Every question (who the Roaring Knight is, whether Asriel shows up in Chapter 6, what color the Chapter 6 soul fight will be) is a little market you can trade. Buying shares in an outcome is how you say you think it will happen, and the price you pay is how confident everyone else already is.
Is any of it real money?
No. Kromer (K$) is fictional, cannot be bought, cannot be cashed out, and is worth nothing. Nobody deposits anything. The stake is bragging rights and a leaderboard.
... Could it be real money?
... If you guys manage to get me 50 thousand dollars maybe I'll add real money integration. For now, I might pay the leaderboard winner like, 20 bucks.
Do I need an account?
To read, no. To trade, yes, sign in and you start with K$ 100.00.
Prices and probabilities
What does a price of 63% mean?
Two things at once, which is the neat part. It means a share costs 63¢ and pays K$ 1.00 if that outcome happens. Also it means the market's collective estimate is a 63% chance. Prices across a question always add up to 100%, so a price is a probability.
Why did the price move when I bought?
Because your money is part of the estimate now. There is no other trader on the far side of your trade. You trade against an automated market maker (a logarithmic market scoring rule) that raises the price of what you buy and lowers everything else. Buying 10 K$ of a long-shot moves it further than buying 10 K$ of a favourite.
So I pay more than the price I clicked?
Slightly, yes, and the trade panel shows the exact average before you commit. The price you see is the price of the next tiny share; a larger order walks that price up as it fills. This is also why a big order on a thin question is expensive: you are moving the whole estimate on your own.
What is “liquidity b” on a question page?
How deep the book is. A higher b means prices move more slowly and larger trades fill closer to the quoted price. It is set per question when the question is written.
Why didn’t every option start at the same price?
Some questions open at odds taken from a community poll. Opening a question with a clear favourite at even odds would be a giveaway: whoever bought the favourite first would get it for a fraction of what everyone already believes, just for being quickest. Opening odds only decide where a question starts, and no option opens below 2%. From the first trade on, prices move exactly as they always do.
Can I sell before a question settles?
Yes, back to the market maker at the current price, subject to the holding period below. Selling pushes the price back down.
Kromer
How much do I start with?
K$ 100.00 of spendable balance, once, on signup.
What is the free vote?
Every player gets one free vote on every single question: K$ 10.00 of Kromer that belongs to that question alone and is not part of your balance (the rules call it the free stake). It is spent before your real balance, so the first K$ 10.00 you put on any question costs you nothing, and you can always vote on anything, even while broke. It does not refill: if you sell out of a question, the proportion of the proceeds that came from your free vote goes back to that question's free vote rather than into your spendable balance.
Can I go broke?
Your balance can reach zero, but it can never go negative: you can only ever spend what you have, and the most you can lose on a position is what you paid for it. And the free vote means a zero balance never locks you out of a new question.
Can I get more Kromer?
By being right: winning shares pay out when a question settles. The questionnaire pays a one-off bonus for each answer, and referrals pay up to K$ 220.00. And now and then an admin sends a grant: the same amount to every player, including everyone who joins later. If your account is still waiting on funding, every grant arrives with your starting balance.
Votes vs. money
What is the second, thinner bar under each outcome?
The headcount. Alongside the money, every question counts votes: one player, one vote, whether they staked K$ 10.00 or K$ 100.00. If you hold shares in more than one outcome you are counted once, for whichever outcome you have put the most Kromer into, your pick, which is also the only outcome that can earn you the loyalty dividend.
Do votes affect the price?
Never. They are a completely separate tally.
The holding period
Why can’t I sell the shares I just bought?
Shares are locked for 7 days after purchase. Sells consume your oldest unlocked shares first, so a position you have topped up repeatedly unlocks in the order you bought it.
What is that for?
I wanted people to only invest into stuff they believe in. Try to invest only when you believe the theory has a chance of succeeding
What does FROZEN mean?
An admin has halted trading on that question, usually because a chapter or an official reveal is imminent.
Loyalty and conviction
What is the loyalty dividend?
Extra money on winning shares, scaled by how long you held them: 30% of face value per year held, capped at +90%. A share held for two years pays K$ 1.60 instead of K$ 1.00.
Why does that exist?
I thought the "truthers" should get a little more of a reward than people who change their mind frequently. If you've been a Papyrus Knighter, you deserve your reward.
Does everything I hold earn it?
No. Only your pick on each question: the outcome you have put the most Kromer into, which is also where your vote goes. Anything else you hold still pays face value if it comes good, but never a dividend, so spreading money over several outcomes can never earn more than one. The clock is the pick's own, too: move your money onto a different outcome and the pick moves with it, counting from when you bought that one. The early-bird value built up on the old pick stays behind, though it still counts toward conviction.
How is “how long I held” calculated?
Share-weighted across your purchases of your pick. Buying more of the same outcome late genuinely dilutes your average age, so you cannot backdate a position by topping it up, and selling and re-buying starts the clock over.
Can I just buy every outcome and collect the dividend?
No. A complete set of shares costs about K$ 1.00 and is guaranteed to pay about K$ 1.00 back, so the dividend would be free money. So on top of only paying your pick, the dividend is paid on your net directional position: your pick's shares that paid, minus everything you hold that did not. Hedge the whole board and that number is zero, and so is your dividend. Take a real position and it is your whole position.
What is conviction, and what are the titles?
Conviction is a lifetime stat in share-days. One share held for one day is one share-day. It banks when a position closes and never goes down; selling early just stops the clock. It is purely cosmetic, it drives a title, and unlike the dividend it accrues for losers too, because they had the same capital committed for the same stretch of time. The ladder:NEW0 share-daysASPIRING10,000 share-daysHOPEFUL50,000 share-daysDETERMINED250,000 share-daysDEALMAKER750,000 share-daysBIG SHOT2,000,000 share-days
How long is a “year” here?
365 days, and the dividend is prorated continuously.
How questions settle
What happens when a question resolves?
Trading closes and every share is redeemed at once. In the usual case one option wins outright: its shares pay K$ 1.00 each plus any loyalty dividend, and every other option pays nothing.
What is a graded payout?
Sometimes a reveal makes more than one theory right, and one winner would be a lie. So an option's payout is a percentage, set independently for each option, and several can pay at once. If the Knight turns out to be a Kriselle fusion, the “Kriselle” option can be graded at 100% while “Noelle” and “Kris” are graded at 33% each. On the question page, every option graded 100% is marked correct and every one in between is marked partly correct. If this happens, I'll hold a small poll to find the numbers I should use.
Doesn’t that create money out of nothing?
Yes.
Couldn’t someone buy every option and profit off a graded payout?
I guess we better start investing in kriselle knight.
What does VOID mean?
The question was cancelled badly written, unresolvable, or overtaken by events. You were refunded.
Can a settled question be un-settled?
No. Settlement pays out every holder in one pass and cannot be undone.
The questionnaire
What is the survey for?
Stats about who is actually making these predictions. 12 questions, and answers never touch prices, votes, or payouts. Here's a secret. This entire site is actually fabricated to see what deltarune fans are thinking is going to happen. I'm just curious to see what these numbers are lol.
What does it pay?
K$ 600.00 in total, once, the first time you answer each question. Changing an answer never pays again, and answers are frozen for 7 days before they can be changed at all. Go answer it.
Referrals
How do referrals work?
Every player has a referral code, shown on their portfolio and printed on their share image. When a friend who has just joined enters your code, they get K$ 20.00 and so do you. A code can be used by 10 players.
What is the most I can earn?
K$ 20.00 for each friend who uses your code, up to 10, plus K$ 20.00 once more: for having used a friend's code yourself, or, if you never did, once 5 friends have used yours. That is K$ 220.00 at most, whichever way you earn it.
How do I hand my code out?
Share your picks from your portfolio, or from Share portfolio in the top bar. Share referral copies an invite link with your code, and Copy image copies the picture. A friend who follows that link and then signs up has your code entered for them as they sign in, and your code is printed on the picture for anyone who would rather type it.
When can I enter someone's code?
Within 7 days of joining, from your portfolio. You get one code, never your own, and it has to belong to a player who joined before you did. Once 5 players have used your own code you have earned the reward a code would give you, so you cannot enter one.
Admins, fairness, and the fine print
Who decides what a question resolves to?
Me.
Are you gonna cheat?
No.
Is this affiliated with Toby Fox or Deltarune?
No. KromerMarket is an unofficial fan project. Kromer is fictional and has no value.
Who made this?
Who runs KromerMarket?
Xoop, or cosmicxoop on Discord. One person, as a fan project.
Something is broken. Who do I tell?
Same person, cosmicxoop on Discord. An account stuck waiting on funding, a question that settled wrong, a price that looks impossible, a theory worth opening a question on: say so and I will look at it.
Still stuck? Browse the open questions. Every one of them has a free vote waiting on it (K$ 10.00), so you can learn how this works without spending a thing.